During last couple of weeks a number of responsible Indian authorities, both from the political and the security set up have been continuously warning about the forthcoming summer being exceptionally “Hot” in the valley. They did not mean the hot weather which is a global phenomenon but referred to the militant scene. These declarations have already caused a lot of resentment in the business circles especially those associated with the travel industry. Some prominent members of the travel fraternity have alleged that such campaigns are deliberately started by vested interests at the start of the tourist season to economically damage Kashmiris. It has been observed for last few years that as soon as the visitor rush picks up, some odd event occurs to totally disrupt the season. Some years back tourists were specifically targeted in different parts of the valley. There were also allegations that such incidents are master minded by Kashmir’s competitors in the field of tourism. It is a fact that a number of new destinations have come up because of the turmoil in the valley of Kashmir. During the time the Kashmir Tourism was at its peak no body would visit those places. Since the time Kashmir has been in trouble all those destinations have grown manifold. Revival of Kashmir as a Tourist destination may definitely affect the traffic there. However, the revival of up market tourism to Kashmir has not taken place in spite of the best efforts of the tourism officials. The main reason is the image of a global hot spot acquired by Kashmir over last two decades. Unless this image changes and all the adverse foreign travel advisories are withdrawn, Kashmir will continue to remain a destination for low income budget tourists not so fussy about the prevalent conditions. The allegation that the Indian Government does not want economic development of Kashmiris and as such prevents inflow of tourists by creating a disturbed image of the valley also does not seem convincing enough. Firstly, it is a myth that tourism is the back bone of the economy of Kashmir. It does not contribute even 8% to the GDP! Even if the tourism sector gets a bashing, it does not make a tremendous impact on the economy. For almost a decade (1990 to 1998) there was hardly any tourism activity in Kashmir but the Kashmiris did not face starvation. People did manage alternate means to sustain themselves. Nevertheless, the Tourism Industry definitely has the potential of becoming the mainstay of our economy provided complete peace returns to the state. So far it has been a source of additional income only.

Logically speaking, the Government of India should prefer to develop an economic stake for the people so that they strive for peace to maintain that stake. A recent example is the cross LOC trade. In spite of numerous hurdles both the sides have kept the trade going. Practically the trade is being carried on ancient lines and that too in a blind manner. There are no direct dialling facilities between traders and there is no currency exchange. Moreover, the items to be traded are not the choicest items of the traders. In spite of this the trade is going on and already over three hundred crores worth trading has taken place. Again developing this measure to the fullest extent by allowing totally free trade with maximum facilities would be in the long term interests of the Indian Government as it makes borders irrelevant without changing the sovereignty. If this be the logical assessment then why are the Indian authorities raising the bogey of a violent summer? Surely, they are not scared of 600 odd militants? In 1990, the number of militants was in hundreds of thousands when every young man was going across and getting training and arms. Even at that time there was not such a massive security grid in the civilian areas. Yes, extensive military operations were going on all over the valley but that was due to extensive dispersal of militants and their large numbers. Subsequently, the violence was virtually brought to zero with odd militants roaming here and there but the security grid in civilian areas was strengthened rather than reduced. The Indian authorities would not like a set up which generally appears like a fly being killed with a sledge hammer. Violence does not bother them. How can a mighty war machine be afraid of few hundred militants? The militant actions are just like pin pricks to a grizzly bear! Even if India loses a thousand soldiers a day in Kashmir, it is not going to make a big difference to a country of 1.2 billion people. More people may be dying in road accidents every day!

There is another theory. The recent coming together of Americans and Pakistanis in Afghanistan prompting Americans to ask India to lessen its presence there, has given a set back to Indian strategists. They would not like the Pakistan’s eastern front to get cold allowing them to concentrate on Taliban in the west. Americans want a graceful exit and it is only Pakistan which can ensure that. Incidentally, both the countries are conducting massive military exercises these days. However, Americans would not like India to hot up the eastern front at the cost of their own operations. This brings us to the final plausible theory of a media hype regarding “Hot” summer in Kashmir. It is a fact that the Indian authorities now fully understand the unpredictable nature of Kashmiri masses. With the degree of extreme alienation and the unpredictable nature of the people, they do not want to take a risk of million people marching on the roads asking for Azadi. The only thing the Indian authorities are scared of is a non-violent mass agitation. After all it was Mahatma Gandhi’s peaceful mass agitation which got India its freedom from the British. The panicky reaction to stone pelting also stems from the fear of peaceful mass agitation. Taking a leaf from the history of Kashmir, the Indian authorities know that as long as a solid lid is kept over Kashmiris, they will behave. Once the lid is off, no one can predict how the people will behave? Thus, one can conclude that the “Hot” summer hype is to allow continuation of a strict security grid in all civilian areas and ensure that the notorious legislation AFSPA giving unbridled powers to security personnel is not revoked. If that be the mindset of a section of the establishment in Delhi, it is very unfortunate. Such an attitude is against the long term interests of India. It contradicts the generally propagated premise that the dialogue is the only way out of the present imbroglio. Home Secretary G K Pillai’s declaration that anything minus Azadi can be considered is meaningless with a gun being held to the head of the other party. Any dialogue should be preceded by the building of a conducive atmosphere. That can only happen when some practical steps are taken to ease the hostage like situation of common masses in Kashmir. This involves withdrawal of security grid from civilian areas, revocation of AFSPA, release of detenues, and above all restoration of right to peaceful assembly and free expression of the people. Unless this is done, Kashmir will continue to have “Hot” summers and the heat will grow in intensity regardless of the status of the global warming!