For over a year now the Indian Government has been refusing to restart the composite dialogue with Pakistan. Prior to 26/11 incidents in Mumbai, the dialogue process had been moving ahead even though at a reduced speed. In fact, the dialogue process had received a fatal blow with the ouster of General Pervez Musharraf. However, in spite of his exit, the dialogue was limping along. The Mumbai attacks completely terminated the process. India took an unrelenting stand that there can be no talks with Pakistanis unless they dismantle the terror infrastructure in their country. This had been prompted by the initial finding that the attackers in Mumbai had not only come from Pakistan but had received support from the people there that were freely roaming and advocating Jihad against India. No doubt the attackers had strong Pak connection but the situation there is at present so murky that it is difficult to distinguish between the state and non-state actors. As regards non-state actors, there is no dearth and there are dozens of outfits in various shapes and sizes roaming freely. They are now targeting the Pakistani security establishment all over the country. Within the state too there are many groups having sympathies with the Jihadis. In addition, there is a strong hard-line lobby in the security establishment against India. With this type of scenario one would have expected a more intelligent and measured response from India. However, the recent statement of Nirupama Rao, the Indian Foreign Secretary that the composite dialogue with Pakistan is difficult, has an ominous ring about it. The National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon went a step ahead and said that old things should be forgotten. The earlier composite dialogue process according to him is over.

The Foreign Secretaries meeting in Delhi did not even have much of photo ops. The two sides addressed separate press conferences. It was like a drama being enacted on external bidding. It was starkly evident that the Indian side was not at all interested in any dialogue but went along just for fulfilling an obligation to their new mentors. At the moment they are relishing the explosive situation faced by Pakistan internally as well as the war on its western borders. One had been used to Indian side pleading for a bilateral dialogue to resolve all issues including Kashmir. They would always avoid external mediation and any situation of conflict but for a change the things have got reversed. It is now Pakistan which is urging a dialogue but India is taking its own time. This is so in spite of Pakistan putting a brave face that they are not begging for a dialogue. Delhi seems to have overcome many of its compulsions and is happy in the status quo. They appear to be deriving sadistic pleasure from Pakistan’s discomfiture. The Indian planners may be feeling that the turmoil inside Pakistan is to their long term advantage. It is true that Pakistan is in a terrible mess! Its very existence is threatened. It looks like a nation committing mass suicide. One of the main pivots around which the terrible internal dissension among Pakistanis revolves is the Kashmir question. The fanatic religious groups want to participate in a Jihad to liberate their Muslim brethren from Indian slavery and subjugation. Any solution of this vexed problem to the satisfaction of Kashmiris is bound to neutralise the slogan of Jihad. India does not want to give them this concession at the moment. They may be feeling that the ultimate disintegration of Pakistan may end all their problems once and for all. However, if this is the evaluation of the situation by Indian strategists, they may not be on the right track keeping in view the history of Afghanistan and the Pakistan’s disturbed areas.
The particular areas under turmoil both in Afghanistan and North West of Pakistan have been traditionally tribal strongholds which have always been left alone by various colonial powers. After many attempts to subdue them, the British were forced to work out a compromise with them. Russians had to leave the place with a bloody nose. Now the Americans are facing something worse than Vietnam and do not know how to get out. Even the Pakistani Governments had all along let this area remain undisturbed. The writ of the government never ran in these places and these were called “Alaqai Gair” or the “Forbidden Areas”. They have their own tribal laws and ways of administering justice. The most prized possession in the area is a gun. It is easy to find all types of guns and ammunition there but difficult to get something to eat! They have their own interpretation of Islam and in spite of being devout Muslims; they do not mind indulging in smuggling or cultivation of narcotics like opium. People are extremely poor. Most of them live in mud houses. Schooling is mostly through religious madrassas. In case, Pakistan disintegrates, all these tribes of professional fighters will be on India’s borders. It will be extremely difficult to contain and subdue them. They may consider entire India as a fertile ground for Jihad. History may repeat itself as new Ahmad Shah Abdalis and Mehmud Ghaznavis may be on the Indian borders! The only way to calm these people may be a joint effort by all concerned to tackle the situation on a long term basis. This cannot be done by killing people indiscriminately through drones and major assaults causing extensive collateral damage. On the contrary one may succeed by providing them all the basic facilities of the modern civilisation which are totally lacking in these areas. The roads, hospitals, schools, colleges, and so on. India is already doing all that in Afghanistan but in collaboration with the government for which there are no takers among these rebellious tribesmen. Pakistanis on the other hand are killing one and sundry with American collaboration under the pretext of “War on Terror”. The result is that all these people are now turning against Pakistan and trying to destroy it from within.

The scenario after the inevitable American departure looks quite grim. The Americans forced Russians to leave disgracefully. However, their success so much intoxicated them that they left the locals totally in the lurch! The monster created by them turned into a Frankenstein monster and started devouring its creator, the USA itself. Had the Americans taken care of the locals then, the things may have turned out differently. Now they have another grim situation on their hands. This can be saved only if all the neighbouring countries collaborate to contain the situation by mutual agreement. Both India and Pakistan have to tackle the Afghan situation and its aftermath jointly keeping aside their mutual irritants. If Afghanistan and Pakistan’s North West is left unattended like the earlier departure of Americans, the resulting turmoil and free for all may engulf the entire region. The existing Indo-Pak mutual irritants may seem peanuts compared to that explosion! Delhi may not be under compulsion to sort out Kashmir because Pakistan is already under tremendous pressure of its own creation. However, in the long term, letting things heat up in the Afghan-Pak region may be at the detriment of India. It would be in the interests of India both long term and short term to sort out Kashmir both internally and externally. Letting Kashmir adrift in the hope that time is on their side would be a terrible mistake by the Indian strategists. It amounts to keeping a cause alive not only in Kashmir and the sub-continent but in the larger arena of Af-Pak for voluntary fighters of all colours and shades, some of whom have suicidal tendencies! On the contrary, it may be useful for Nirupama Rao and Shiv Shankar Menon to do some rethinking about their recent declarations if one is genuinely interested in peace in the sub-continent as well as in the South Asian Region.