The recent statement of Nirupama Rao, the Indian Foreign Secretary that the composite dialogue with Pakistan is difficult, has an ominous ring about it. The National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon went a step ahead and said that old things should be forgotten. The earlier composite dialogue process according to him is over. This is in spite of the counter declaration by S M Krishna, the Foreign Minister, that Foreign Secretary may visit Islamabad next month! These are confusing statements but there seems to be a purpose behind these. The Foreign Secretaries meeting in Delhi did not even have much of photo ops. The two sides addressed separate press conferences. It was like a drama being enacted on external bidding. It was starkly evident that the Indian side was not at all interested in any dialogue but went along just for fulfilling an obligation to their new mentors. At the moment they are relishing the explosive situation faced by Pakistan internally as well as the war on its western borders. One had been used to Indian side pleading for a bilateral dialogue to resolve all issues including Kashmir. They would always avoid external mediation and any situation of conflict but for a change the things have got reversed. It is now Pakistan which is urging a dialogue but India is taking its own time. This is so in spite of Pakistan putting a brave face that they are not begging for a dialogue. Delhi seems to have overcome many of its compulsions and is happy in the status quo. They appear to be deriving sadistic pleasure from Pakistan’s discomfiture. However, keeping in view the long term strategy of Indian planners, their attitude may not be only to feel elated at Pakistan’s mess. They are probably taking a long term view keeping in mind their own national interests. It is true that Pakistan is in a terrible mess! Its very existence is threatened. It looks like a nation committing mass suicide. One of the main pivots around which the terrible internal dissension among Pakistanis stands is the Kashmir question. The fanatic religious groups want to participate in a Jihad to liberate their Muslim brethren from Indian slavery and subjugation. Any solution of this vexed problem to the satisfaction of Kashmiris is bound to neutralise the slogan of Jihad. India does not want to give them this concession at the moment. They may be feeling that the ultimate disintegration of Pakistan may end all their problems once and for all. However, if this is the evaluation of the situation by Indian strategists, they may not be on the right track keeping in view the history of the disturbed area.

The particular areas under turmoil both in Afghanistan and North West of Pakistan have been traditionally tribal strongholds which have always been left alone by various colonial powers. After many attempts to subdue them, the British left them alone. Russians left with a bloody nose. Now the Americans are facing something worse than Vietnam. Even the Pakistani Governments had all along left this area undisturbed. The writ of the government never ran in these places and these were called “Alaqai Gair” or the “Forbidden Areas”. They have their own tribal laws and ways of administering justice. The most prized possession in the area is a gun. It is easy to find all types of guns and ammunition there but difficult to get something to eat! They have their own interpretation of Islam and in spite of being devout Muslims; they do not mind indulging in smuggling or cultivation of narcotics like opium. People are extremely poor. Most of them live in mud houses. Schooling is mostly through religious madrassas. In case, Pakistan disintegrates, all these hordes will be on India’s borders. They will be extremely difficult to subdue. They may consider entire India as a fertile ground for Jihad. The only way to calm these people may be a joint effort by all concerned to tackle the situation on a long term basis. This cannot be done by killing people indiscriminately through drones and major assaults causing extensive collateral damage. On the contrary one may succeed by providing them all the basic facilities of the modern civilisation which are totally lacking in these areas. The roads, hospitals, schools, colleges, and so on. India is already doing all that in Afghanistan but in collaboration with the government for which there are no takers among these rebellious tribesmen. Pakistanis on the other hand are killing one and sundry with American collaboration under the pretext of “War on Terror”. The result is that all these people are now turning against Pakistan and trying to destroy it from within.

The scenario after inevitable American departure looks quite grim. After the Russian defeat, the Americans left the locals in the lurch. The monster created by them turned into a Frankenstein monster and started devouring its creator. Had the Americans taken care of the locals then, the things may have turned out differently. Now they have another grim situation on their hands. This can be saved only if all the local neighbours collaborate to contain the situation by mutual agreement. Both India and Pakistan have to tackle the Afghan situation and its aftermath jointly keeping aside their mutual irritants. If Afghanistan and Pakistan’s North West is left unattended like the earlier departure of Americans, the resulting turmoil and free for all may engulf the entire region. The Indo-Pak mutual irritants may seem peanuts compared to that explosion! Delhi may not be under compulsion to sort out Kashmir because Pakistan is already under tremendous pressure of its own creation. However, in the long term, letting things heat up in the Afghan-Pak region may be at the detriment of India. It would be in the interests of India both long term and short term to sort out Kashmir both internally and externally. Letting Kashmir drift in the hope that time is on the side of Indian strategists would be a mistake. It amounts to keeping a cause alive not only in Kashmir and the sub-continent but in the larger arena of Af-Pak for voluntary fighters, some of them suicidal, of all colours and shades! So Nirupama Rao and Shiv Shankar Menon may have to do some rethink about their recent declarations if we are genuinely interested in peace in the sub-continent as well as in South Asia.