After a gap of more than a year, the two neighbours met again at the foreign secretary level to resume the stalled peace dialogue. However, this meeting failed to restart the process. In diplomatic parlance, they have agreed to disagree! It has as usual ended with a blame game. India has handed over three dossiers and demanded handing over of some suspected terrorists. Pakistan has pointed out Indian involvement through Afghanistan. There is no road map for further dialogue or meetings. They have promised to be in touch. It has been stated by the Indian side that no further progress can be achieved as long as the trust deficit remains! During last 64 years the two neighbours have been alternating between war and peace. They have already fought three major wars and a fourth one though limited to LOC in Ladakh could almost have triggered a nuclear Armageddon but for the American intervention. The main reason for this is the irreconcilable mistrust between these two neighbouring countries right from day one of their creation. One would have thought that like the Europeans who after two world wars learnt the lessons of conflict, these people would also take a leaf from their history. Unfortunately, that has not happened and there does not seem any chance of that thing happening in the near future. This is because the already existing mistrust is compounded by external players and stakeholders. It is only when these external players need lessening of tension in the sub-continent that they pressurise these people to talk to each other. These talks facilitated by outsiders have remained more or less cosmetic, just for diplomatic consumption. Such instances of “Facilitation” have occurred a number of times in the past but once the outsiders feel their goals getting realised, they lessen the pressure and the two neighbours revert to the original position of mistrust. One can judge the sincerity of these facilitators from the fact that they offer “Facilitation” and not “Mediation”. The former does not involve them in the process itself but the later does! Probably they feel the conflict is a strategic asset to them and they do not want to lose it completely. One could have easily guessed the seriousness of the dialogue by the number of flip-flop statements issued by responsible persons on both the sides during the days preceding the event. Pakistanis wanted to restart the composite dialogue with focus on Kashmir. India wanted to sort out the issue of terrorism first. The quick shift in stances, sometimes very positive and sometimes very negative from various politicians, and bureaucrats of the two countries gives an impression of a ring master holding a whip and telling both the antagonists to behave. As if they are being forced into the dialogue process. Of course, it is very well known that the Americans along with their NATO allies are facing the music in Afghanistan and would like to get out of the quagmire at the earliest. This can only happen when they are able to get total co-operation and focused attention of Pakistani Army and Security Agencies on the western front. That scenario requires peace on the eastern front which can come only by lessening tensions especially in Kashmir. Pakistanis can concentrate on the western front only when they are able to take away the main cause of jihad from their internal militants pledging to liberate Kashmir. Again they too do not want to lose their strategic assets if the things do not work out with Indians. Same is the case with the Indian side. They do not want to give Pakistan strategic depth and they are trying to achieve that by keeping Afghanistan in their economic fold. Thus the tussle goes on and on.

The Civil Society in both the countries seems to have realised the futility of this mad and crazy confrontation. They have been very active in trying to spread awareness among the masses on the two sides. However, when they are lighting candles at Wagah and deliberating in conferences on two sides, something happens to throw a spanner in the works and we are back to square one! It is said that to sort out various issues, there is need for political will. This premise is not fully true. The truth is that the trust is being built between the elements that are not the basic reason for this perennial mistrust. The real trust or mistrust builders on the two sides are the security bosses. Everything is subservient to “National Security” or in general terms to “Security Reasons”. The final say is with the security establishments on two sides. On the Pakistani side nothing can move unless Army and ISI give a green signal. Similarly, on the Indian side the security establishment has an overriding edge over the politicians. This is more so because of a strong Hindutva political opposition which is capable of derailing every process through mass upsurge. The more sensible thing between the two countries for moving ahead on the peace process would be to first arrange a dialogue between the two security establishments. There should be a free and fair interaction with no holds barred between the heads of Army and Security Agencies of two countries. If they are able to freely understand and sort out the strategic apprehensions of two sides, the politicians will have very little work to do to move ahead. There have been some attempts earlier to make the two security establishments talk to each other but these have been very superficial and simply ceremonial attempts. The politicians on two sides may pretend that they are in real control but in the end it is the Security establishments who have the last laugh! No doubt the politicians goaded by their Civil Societies may like to move ahead but they will not succeed unless the real controllers give a green signal. To be successful in building this trust, the two sides will also have to forego the intervention of external players or stakeholders. They have to work out a solution on their own without external prompting.

The misfortune of Kashmiris is that their fate has got linked to this mutual mistrust. Nothing can be done to relieve their decades old suffering unless the two antagonists regain full trust of each other. In the real sense, it is Kashmiris who have become hostages to the Indo-Pak mistrust. Siding with one or the other side is not going to build the trust between the two countries but only increase the mistrust. Kashmiris who are in true sense the real fodder for the canons have to be absolutely neutral and project their case strongly but not violently to both the sides for their ultimate emancipation. Instead of waiting for the western players to bail them out, they have to create their constituency in the Civil Society on both the sides. They seem to be succeeding in this. This is evident from the fact that even a person like Chandan Mitra is prepared to offer virtual independence to Kashmiris! There is only one solution to the problems of the sub-continent including the festering sore of Kashmir and that is the building of mutual trust, between the two countries and between Kashmiris of all regions among themselves as well as with their two neighbours. To achieve this next round of talks should be between General Kayani and General Kapoor and the respective intelligence heads of the two countries. If we are able to arrange that, the dialogue will move ahead and peace will prevail. If we fail, we will continue to remain hostages to the mistrust and ultimately take everything down with us!