Taliban entering Kashmir is like the story of crying wolf. There have been many instances of the security authorities claiming entry of Taliban into Kashmir. In fact, one of these stories was floated by no less a person than the head of the security which completely disrupted the tourist season in its very start. The story was later on repeatedly denied by the top brass but the damage had been done. It is typical story of a person crying wolf, wolf when there was none and when the wolf really came no one believed the cry and the wolf ate up the person crying wolf! Sometime back there was a widely circulated story that the Taliban had declared their intention to tackle India after taking over the State of Pakistan. There is some confusion about Taliban. There are two types of these. The real Taliban are the ones which were trained in Pakistan and then sent into Afghanistan to tackle the situation created after the departure of Russians. They were so tough and disciplined that they brought all tribes under their sway. For Afghans the departure of Russians was the liberation of their country. Once the Russians had gone, the Americans who had helped them in throwing out Russians also abandoned them. The Taliban that had been trained by ISI were taking guidance for managing the war torn Afghanistan from ISI. However, they had nothing to do with the universal call for Jihad. The Afghans never allowed any one including the mighty British to subdue them. Most of the time they have been left all alone. Their main concern is to protect their own tribal life style which has been in existence for ages. For them the tribal loyalty and customs come above everything. The Afghani Taliban gave shelter to Osama Bin Laden who set up Al Qaeda to take revenge from the Americans. The 9/11 episode reversed the entire process and the Americans who had been their mentors became their worst enemies and the fight is still on!

Then there is the second type of Taliban. These are also known as the Pakistani Taliban. They live on the border of Afghanistan also known as the North West Frontier Province. These are the people who are always ready for Jihad anywhere. In fact, these were the people who came to Kashmir in 1947 to help the Muslims supposedly being suppressed by the Hindu Maharaja. These days there is also a new breed known as the Punjabi Taliban. The real Taliban of Afghanistan does not seem to have any intention of entering Kashmir to fight for Kashmiris. However, the Pakistani Taliban may find it worthwhile to create a new centre of activities to justify their existence. But this will be possible only after they overrun the existing set up in Pakistan. In fact, they could have already done so had not the westernised Pakistani Elite in the Army and the political set up pressed the panic button. The Taliban were supposed to be heading towards Islamabad after overrunning Swat. It was at this time, the Elite made the plans to take Taliban head on by mounting a massive assault on the Taliban bases in the frontier area. There does not seem any chance of these people capturing power in Islamabad. This is more so after the massive civilian casualties that have totally alienated the common people in Pakistan from their aims and objectives. Not only is the basic survival of Pakistan at stake but the Americans too cannot afford it. In such circumstances we can relax and forget about Taliban spilling over to Kashmir. Moreover, Kashmiris are no where near the ideology propounded by Taliban. In fact, the most hardliner leader of Kashmir has condemned the Taliban actions in the civilian areas of Pakistan and has termed these as totally against the basic spirit of Islam. Thus, even if some odd Taliban fighters enter Kashmir they may not get a hearty welcome. The panic created by the top brass of the security set up seems totally at variance with the ground reality.

Now let us take the Chinese intrusions on the border especially in Ladakh. These too seem to be highly exaggerated. No doubt the Chinese are better equipped, better disciplined, and infrastructure wise in a comfortable position to create some serious problems but in the overall scenario it may not be in their interest to go for a major conflagration. They are trying to be not only leaders in the Asian continent but in the overall global scenario. The main problem for them is India’s emergence on the world scene as a possible super power as well as an economic giant. They are challenging economically US itself and would not like to be detracted so near their home. In fact, some of the reports emerging out of their Strategic Institutions have spoken about the need to disintegrate India. A couple of their strategists have been dreaming of breaking India into 20 or so smaller countries. In fact, recently some one had stated that they could repeat 1962 as India had not learnt any lessons after the debacle faced by it at that time. The 1962 assault again was not to take any territory but only to give a downward push to the emerging India. At that time India was becoming the leader of the non-aligned block and Panch Sheel, the five principles of peaceful co-existence were the mantra projected by Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru everywhere. India had given a new kind of leadership to Asia. The Chinese could not digest it and gave an unsettling push forcing India into the lap of Americans. A lot has happened after 1962. India is now a nuclear power. Indian forces may not be as well equipped as the Chinese but they are not like the ramshackle army of 1962. It may not be just a walk over for the Chinese. Unfortunately, the Indian security forces’ top brass are themselves berating Indian capacity to face China. The Air Force Chief says India’s Air Force is one third of China and the Naval Chief says that the Chinese are far ahead. This does not augur well for the morale of the forces! However, the Chinese do not have to come into India. They are already here. They have a very subtle way of operating and go about it very slowly and steadily. Nepal is a living example. Naxalism and Maoism have spread in hundreds of districts in India. It has been recently revealed that Naxalites and Maoists are getting small arms from China. If we go by the strategic goals of Chinese, then there is no need for them to come into Kashmir. Kashmiris can relax that neither Taliban nor China are going to visit them in the near future. In fact, both may leave Kashmiris to the self-destruction they are themselves indulging in everywhere. In fact, Kashmiris have themselves shattered their society, infrastructure, and above all the environment which the nature had so gracefully bestowed on them. They do not need Taliban or China. They already have the insatiable material greed and the monster of corruption eating into the very vitals of their society. Even Almighty God seems to have abandoned them!