The result of the Pakistan elections may put the much talked about Indo-Pak peace process in a reset mode. We may be proverbially “back to square one”! At least that is going to be the fate of the extensively publicised and widely debated “Musharraf Formula”. In fact, the very future of the erstwhile General himself is uncertain. His formula will be probably the last thing the new dispensation would be comfortable with. If they intend to further the process, they may have to choose a different name for it. Kashmiris seem to have some sort of a divine curse as every effort to get them out of the centuries old misery and suffering gets ultimately jinxed. The latest initiative taken a few years back by the party based on Hindutva, the BJP could have been decisive in settling the issue. The initiative of peace started by BJP was a God given break through. Vajpayee had dreamt of making history by his initiative of peace in the sub-continent. The first set back came with the exit of Vajpayee. In spite of his departure, the initiative could have been pursued. The congress government had only to give a push to this historic first step. Additionally, the two leaders at the helm in the sub-continent were not professional politicians. They had not come into the realm of governance on their own through any political movements but had been put there by circumstances beyond their control. They had absolutely no personal stakes except to do a good turn to their countries and the teeming millions living below poverty line. They had good chemistry. The leader on the other side had for the first time shown total flexibility in regard to the vexed problem of Kashmir and had been prepared for an out of box solution for resolving it. Unfortunately, the leader on this side remained hesitant and evasive and did not respond positively. If the two had clinched the issue, the sub-continent would have seen a new dawn. Kashmiris would have tasted peace and freedom after years of turmoil and torture. Billions of rupees would have been released on both sides for economic development. The dithering has resulted in the loss of a unique opportunity to bring peace to the troubled “Paradise”. The dispensation which is slated to take the power on the other side appears to be a marriage of convenience. They declared that they have come together to strengthen democracy. However, it is debatable whether the two arch rivals can ever remain joined together for long? It seems that they have come together to strengthen hypocrisy. The former prime minister has been more of an authoritarian dictator than a democrat during his tenure. He is an epitome of feudalism and his empire runs into billions of rupees. He is also supposed to be progeny of erstwhile Kashmiri parents. However, he has never exhibited even an iota of love and concern for Kashmiris as compared to similar leader on this side, namely Pandit Nehru. One would have thought that the Kashmiri origin of this leader would make him the principle motivator for solving the problem. On the contrary he tried to wriggle out of the Kargil episode which occurred during his premiership. He blamed his army chief for the mess. It is unthinkable that an army chief would be able to launch such an operation without the knowledge of the political bosses. Had the operation been successful, he would have taken all the credit. It is really ironic that while his soldiers were intruding into Kargil heights, he was embracing Vajpayee in Lahore! He played similar cards to get out of Pakistan after the coup of 1999. He even denied initially the existence of an agreement for exile but subsequently accepted it to be only for five years instead of ten. The moot point is whether one can trust him for pursuing an out of box solution? The other guy has been known as “Mr. Ten Percent”. He still has a number of cases in foreign courts and has even been convicted in Geneva. His high handedness and corruption is proverbial in Pakistan. In the past, these two political parties have been at each others’ throats. It is universally known that they have joined only against a common enemy, the erstwhile General. As and when the General is out of the way, they will fall out. Credit must be given to the General for holding an election which has been described by many analysts as the most fair, transparent, and peaceful in the history of Pakistan. His initiative for Indo-Pak détente too had seemed to be sincere and honest. He had been involved directly in Kargil. He had seen the helplessness of Indian leaders in Agra and had probably got convinced that the solution to the most complicated problem of Kashmir could only be an out of the box solution after giving up of rigid traditional stances by the two sides. His innovative formula appeared to hold a very good prospect of success at least for opening the way for an ultimate solution. It seemed a practical and workable approach. This was even accepted by this side also not withstanding the lukewarm follow up. Similarly, many Kashmiri leaders both from the separatist camp and the mainstream had considered it to be a way forward. Some had even put all their eggs in the General’s basket! His departure would not only make his famous “Kashmir Formula” go up in smoke but would also unsettle many apple carts on the two sides of the divide including some in Kashmir. Quite a few political analysts and observers have opined that the peace process will go on unhindered. It appears uncertain. The new dispensation has too many internal problems on its hands and the solution of Kashmir may be their last priority unless they use it emotionally as in the past to keep their own people in good humour. This is especially so because of the week hold which the future set up will have on the rogue elements in the army and the Inter-Services Intelligence. The General could keep these in check but the new civilian set up with people pulling in different directions many not have such a strong hold on these. Rather they may give them more freedom to save their own skin! One would not be surprised if the things hot up more during the forth coming summer this being additionally the election year. There is, however, some silver lining to the approaching dark clouds. That is the external pressure on the two governments to give peace a chance and continue the détente. This is because of two important American stakes in the region. The first is the worsening situation in Afghanistan which Americans have to stabilize in order to take out the wind from the opposition sails in the US Presidential election campaign. Iraq and Afghanistan are going to be key issues in the run up to the election. The second is the nuclear deal with India which pertains more to the opening up of the colossal Indian consumer market including the one in the field of nuclear energy and sale of armaments. If Americans want to act, they can do so regardless of consequences. This has been vividly demonstrated in the instant case of Kosovo’s independence. Only the stakes have to be high to make them move. Let us hope the stakes are equally high for them in our region too! Otherwise, we will be truly back to square one with more suffering and misery in store for us.