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Immediately after shedding his uniform the General made a number of TV appearances while addressing various conferences, seminars, and official meetings. Musharraf without uniform in initial stages gave a strange feeling. The General without his uniform seemed like a bird without its feathers. Slowly he became more comfortable and acceptable. He had apparently completed all requisite “legal” formalities to become a civilian president. Even the emergency, which he had to impose to arrange his installation as a civilian president especially in view of a hostile judiciary, had been lifted. It was still debatable whether he was going to be acceptable as a “legally” elected de jure President or not. However, he had come to be a de facto one. He proved shrewd enough to have his way in spite of the opposition from different political quarters. The success of the erstwhile General to become a civilian president was possible entirely because of the support of the army. In a way, one can say that President Musharraf is the civilian face of the army which continues to call the shots. Secondly, there was not any popular upsurge against his actions including the imposition of emergency, sacking of judges, and detaining of politicians and others. People did not come out on the streets to protest his authoritarian actions. Last 60 years have vividly demonstrated that Pakistan cannot sustain any set up which does not have backing of the army. Almost for half the period of its existence it has been under the direct control of the defence forces. Even in the periods when there was apparent democratic set up, army and its elite wing ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) was always lurking behind the scenes. In fact, sometimes they were setting up the agenda for civilian governments in regard to some important policy issues. Pakistan has a very interesting and peculiar history of its army rulers. Each time they came to save Pakistan from what they called internal and external dangers but stayed on even after the presumed threats had been contained. It is said power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. This has been proved repeatedly by the generals who took over the reigns of power in Pakistan from time to time. Power has an addiction which one does not want to give up easily. The relationship between the army and political set up in Pakistan goes much deeper. It is basically a feudal and a tribal society. The elite officer corps in all the services comes from various feudal and tribal groups. Again the top politicians also belong to the same feudal set up. Thus one does not see a strong conflict between the civil society and the army. They are intertwined. In a way there is only one institution which has grown all these years in Pakistan and that is the army. Secondly there are two extremes, the rich, and the poor. The middle class is not very sizeable or effective. Even the former soldiers or what are known as the ex-servicemen, have a significant presence in the form of “Fauji Foundation” in all walks of life. They undertake all errands from the running of a travel agency to managing the logistic wing of the army. Musharraf may not be very wrong in claiming that the western type of democracy does not suit Pakistan. Every time the army has given up power to (apparently) usher in a democratic set up, it has collapsed after sometime and they are back in the saddle. This time, the exercise has gone a little further by changing the clothes worn by the General. It is in a way a new experiment, which may seem to be the best bet in the given circumstances especially after the situation created by 9/11. America cannot afford to lose the General because of his utility in fighting Al Qaeda. India too feels “comfortable” in dealing with him as they know that army still backs him. The Indian National Security Advisor gave him a clean chit even before America could feel comfortable. He prefers to do business with the erstwhile General and did not trust late Benazir. Most of the people feel General to be a lesser evil than the alternative of a Taliban type regime. Then there is the question of nukes which the General had taken under his direct control. A nuclear armed Pakistan governed by a religious extremist group could be any body’s nightmare especially of India. There seems to have been some sort of a general consensus to have somehow a set up in Pakistan with “enlightened moderation” whereby both the politicians and the generals would feel comfortable and the extremists could be kept at bay. All indications were there for the continuation of Musharraf’s “civilian” rule backed by the army. The elections may not have given a two third majority in the house to any party or combination of parties to undo all the changes made by him to the constitution. However, the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto carried out in the most horrendous way has upset all calculations. Musharraf does not seem to be very comfortable now. The circumstances of the assassination and the contradictory statements of government spokesmen have added to his woes. The very strong accusations about the involvement of some people from the ruling establishment both the political and the military (ISI) has further complicated the matters. Even though he has invited Scotland Yard to conduct the investigation, yet the people are highly charged emotionally. The extent of destruction carried out especially in Sind gives very negative signals for Musharraf. The elections may throw up a totally different combination which may force the erstwhile General out. The assassination of Benazir is supposed to strengthen the urge for democracy. The continuation of Bhutto clan with highly charged emotional back up shows that Pakistan is heading for mobocracy and not democracy. Even the very fact of having a life-long chairperson had been anti-democratic. Now the continuation of almost the same pattern does not augur well for restoration of democracy especially due to the reputation of the person who is going to be the real king maker. Then there is the Punjabi versus Sindi element. The violence in frontier areas continues unabated. In a way, the situation in Pakistan is totally fluid. One wonders whether Musharraf had ever visualised developing of such a complicated and explosive situation. Sometime back a friend from US had mentioned that his son had been looking for a suitable house for his parents! Initially he seemed so sincere and determined to do something good for his country. He had such a tremendous start in spite of the unusual circumstances surrounding his coming into power. One had thought that after a long time Pakistanis have a leader who is honest and genuine and means business. Probably he stayed a bit too long. He should have quit at the right moment. It is said man proposes and God disposes. All his calculations, his resolves, and future plans contained in his “Reflections” chapter of “In the line of fire” seem to have gone haywire! According to him Pakistan has a long way to go but what about him? Will he survive the present crisis and usher in a democratic era which he had been so often projecting? It is a million dollar question. If he does, he will truly be the greatest leader Pakistan has seen after Jinnah. Otherwise he will be consigned to the pages of history like the earlier generals and would spend his days in exile in the house which his son must have found by now! |